Oh, it's hanging over. It's the exact
correct language. There's no question
about it. You still have the normal
cadence of Jackson Hole. For example,
there's six, seven, eight papers that
come out. Michael McKe prints them out
perfectly and he reads every page of the
academic papers. Guess what? I don't do
that. I'm talking to the reporters here
gathered. And you're right. At the top
of the pile of topics here is Lisa Cook.
So, what's what's I She's I I I spoke to
Mike earlier. He said she's expected to
arrive. She hasn't arrived yet. Does it
does it take away from Fed Chair
Powell's message tomorrow? Does it
distract from what he says about this
economy and what he indicates or not
about September?
It's a really fair question. I don't
think so. I think Michael McKe, who's
better at this than I am, would say
exactly the same uh thing. What is
different here, and our Simon Flint in
Singapore absolutely nails it in an
essay today. What's different here is
the hard facts of the moment are
catching up with the chairman. I don't
know if they're rewriting the speech
tonight with the stars out above the
Tetons or maybe they're writing it on
the airplane. But what is very clear
here is the hard facts, as Mr. Flint
says, have caught up. You have the
economic data today. You got concern
about inflation. And Tim, the number one
thing I'm watching off the Bloomberg
here is the 30-year bond. Once again,
we're making a dash up near 5%. That's a
kind of inflation whispers that have to
change the speech.
Tom, of course, you mentioned the
chairman will speak tomorrow at Jackson
Hole. Can you just tell us a bit more
about what intent attendees are really
looking to hear from him?
Uh, it varies every year. There was one
year here, I'm going to say three years
ago, I can't remember, where we were
prepared for a 15 minute, 20 minute
speech and I believe he he spoke for 8
minutes. So every year is different. I
think the pageantry will be here.
There'll be an international audience
here. Christine Lagardi or Mr. Nagel of
Germany is here. Uh Bailey of the Bank
of England scheduled as well. But what's
interesting is within the pageantry,
what do you expect from a speech? And
the answer is they'll be looking for
certain nuances and certain single
sentences that will be different. What
you're not going to get a lot of is
what's he going to do in September? That
would be rude. He's not going to do that
here.
You mentioned a lot of those
international voices. I mean the ECB,
we've got Bank of Japan, emerging
markets. How are they playing a part of
the conversation this year in
particular?
Nora, you know my theme. You're already
stealing my theme as we go to tomorrow
with Lisa Brammo. To me, the
international angle here is the
importance uh point. William Rhodess,
Bill Rhodess of Cityroup, iconic at City
Bank, uh it was called City Bank back
then, had this great phrase, central
banker to the world. He took it from
academics. This is a Jackson Hole where
Jerome Powell is the central banker to
the world is he defends delicately the
way we've done banking for years,
pushing against President Trump. the
theme internationally here of central
bank independence will be key.
I think also the the theme of labor,
Tom, and it's something that we've spent
a lot of time talking about in recent
weeks, especially since that shocking
report came out earlier this month about
those numbers for the month of July. And
it's really shifted the conversation
about
what employment in the United States and
what healthy employment numbers look
like in the United States where borders
are closed, immigration, legal and
illegal, is down, and growth among
American families is not what it was a
couple generations ago. What does that
picture look like in terms of reshaping
the American workforce?
Well, and reshaping the speech as well.
It's a movable feast right now, Tim. The
number one thing is we've seen a trend
in the data. The the conceit is labor
data always lags. Okay, fine. And we've
seen this trend including continuing
claims today. Brammo put out on Twitter.
I was, you know, uh stuck in an airport
somewhere. Brammo put out on Twitter
that great continuing uh claims chart
which shows this explosion up in the
weekly data. That's the kind of tea
leaves that gets a Fed to shift.
President Trump wants him to shift
quicker and let's remember we've got
that jobs report early September before
Mike McKe's in that press conference
September 17th.
Well, I want to just talk about the
energy. I mean, you've been to so many
of these symposiums. What's the energy
like on the ground this year in
Quiet.
First thing I noticed when I walked in,
there's a whole new quiet tone to that.
Mike McKe and I remember I remember
August of '07 which was I think I'll say
seven days after Liebore OIS went out
four standard uh deviations. This place
was chaos. My guess is a lot of people
are coming in tomorrow morning and
tomorrow morning here at the Jackson
Lake Lodge will not be quiet. There'll
be a real turnout for the speech. With
that said, it's one part academic, but
it is one part about this attack on the
central bank by President